So, what is their biggest area of concern regarding the only realistic goal, finishing above .500? The pitching staff, last year's strength, is this year's problem.

Even though the Jays ranked first in team ERA, they lost 60 per cent of their '08 season-opening rotation and manager Cito Gaston now must thrust more stressful responsibility on the bullpen. At what point in terms of additional innings does the bullpen produce diminishing returns?

Here are the tough facts. The Jays, in order to compete for a wild card, need a minimum of 90 victories. Consider these daunting statistics with regard to the opening day 12-man pitching staff, consisting of starters Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch, David Purcey, Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond, along with relievers B.J. Ryan, Scott Downs, Brandon League, Jesse Carlson, Shawn Camp, Brian Tallet and Jason Frasor:

The won-lost record of this 12-man staff in the majors last season was just 52-45. Granted they have three virtual rookie starters, but still from that group they must find an additional 38 victories.

Consider that if every one of the 12 pitchers on the Jays' staff was to match his personal major-league high for wins in a year it would add up to only 71 victories. The Jays have to find 19 more than this group has ever done in order to compete.

If the five starting pitchers each matched his professional (not his major-league) high for innings pitched, it would add up to 973 innings. Figuring a season base of 162 games times nine innings, the bullpen would need to throw 485 innings. This current group of seven relievers combined for 3642/3 innings, while for the season, the Jays' bullpen of 12 pitchers totalled 4482/3 innings. It's a tightrope.

It will help at some point if Casey Janssen, Jeremy Accardo, Matt Clement and Brian Wolfe can come back and make an inning-eating difference.

But the good news for the Jays is that it seems like the offence will be better than it showed last year.

"We've got a great offensive club and obviously we haven't shown it the last couple of years," second baseman Aaron Hill said. "Everyone here knows we do and I'm sure they're tired of hearing everybody say it.

"We've got to do it. That's the bottom line."

Hill, who has not played a regular-season game since May 29, and third baseman Scott Rolen, who was forced to adjust his swing in-season last year to compensate for chronic stiffness in his left shoulder, are two reasons for offensive optimism.

But as it always seems, the ultimate fate of the Jays in terms of bailing their young starting pitching out early and increasing their offensive output, will fall on the shoulders of the phlegmatic centre fielder and cleanup hitter, Vernon Wells. He needs to get off to a fast start and to produce some big hits.

Consider that Wells has a .283 lifetime batting average, but is just .268 from the seventh inning on and just .246 in late innings with the game within three runs.

At 30 years old and in the midst of a huge contract, ranked among major-league centre fielders, one would take Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton and Torii Hunter ahead of him in the AL alone.

Wells is running out of chances to change that perception and at the same time the fortunes of the '09 Jays.